Water Resources Management in the South of Kerman Province Using the System Dynamics Model

Integrated water resources management is recognized as one of the main needs of any society due to population growth and technological advancement. To implement integrated water resources management, modeling of this system is essential. On the other hand, water resources systems are highly complex and affected by various factors that are very difficult to identify and determine their role in water resources management. The purpose of this study is to prepare an integrated model taking into account economic, social and environmental dimensions using the system dynamics approach in the southern region of Kerman. To conduct this research, first in the framework of DPSIR cause and effect, a conceptual model of the region was prepared, in which the effective factors on water resources were identified. Then, different components of the basin were modeled with the approach of systems dynamics by specifying the patterns governing the region. Vensim software was used for modeling based on the system dynamics approach. After modeling, the model was validated and evaluated in different ways and it was used in the evaluation, policy-making and planning stages of the basin. The results showed that the cause-and-effect framework of DPSIR and the system dynamics-based approach for evaluating and simulating different policies in the study area are efficient and useful. In addition, the results showed that in the current scenario, the water adequacy ratio for agriculture will decrease from 0.55 in 2006 to 0.2 in 2031, but in the scenario of increasing water supply resources, the water adequacy ratio for agriculture will reach 0.9 in 2031.